If a bet has a good expected profit, I should tell my friends about it also, right?
Think again!
Price sensitivity
The price on each event selection is constantly changing.
Each time a bet is placed on it, the traders from the bookie take note, and when a certain volume is reached, they react by cutting the price.
Once this price has been cut, the bet may no longer have an expected profit, and an expected loss from it.
Account longevity
The longer we can place our bets with a positive expected profit, the longer we earn from it, and the more money we make.
The opposite is true for the bookie – once they can sense the punter is using a profitable system, they will limit your stakes and promotions, making it far more challenging to turn a significant profit.
Account linking
If two accounts do a very similar sequence of bets, the traders from the bookies will notice and may assume both accounts are being operated by the same punter.
If this happens, they will likely limit both accounts in a manner that makes them lose their value completely for finding expected profit going forward.
With our experience of over two decades in the industry, we know exactly what sequences trigger their algorithms, and advise each client their bespoke bet recommendations that will keep them away from this threat.
Bookie price inaccuracy
If the traders that work for the bookie were always accurate with the prices they give, we would never get a chance to make an expected profit!
Thankfully they are human, and often our mathematical model finds flaws in their pricing which allow us to turn a profit.
Sometimes they repeat their mistake week after week, leading to a constant weekly expected profit source for us.
As an example – when VAR was first introduced to the Premier League, our models accounted for this and calculated that a penalty being awarded in each match was significantly more likely (the were at least 20 extra penalties per season!).
The bookies ignored updating their pricing for such a “minor” market which generally didn’t attract many bets.
If we had shared this knowledge, it may well have alerted the traders that there is lots of activity on this market, and the week after week value on this bet would have disappeared.
As it happened, we calculated the optimal amount that could be bet on it to maximise expected profit over time.
The market anomaly was not corrected for almost 2 full years, resulting in a very significant profit for us.
Sharing knowledge like this can be compared to “Slaughtering the cow rather than milking it”, which is also mentioned in our free PDF.
Legality
Last but not least, it is against the T+C’s of Expected Profit to share any premium advice.
This is so that we can provide you (if are a premium client) with the best prices and highest expected value for as long as possible.
This is how we maximise your long term expected profit!